Methodology & limitations

This tool estimates environmental susceptibility to wildfire: how favourable current and forecast conditions are to ignition and rapid fire growth. It also shows real satellite fire detections.

It does not predict exact ignition points, fire spread, or evacuation needs. It is not an emergency service. Always follow local authorities.

The 0–100 score is a transparent weighted blend of normalised components: fire weather (35%), fuel dryness (20%), wind spread (15%) and drought (10%). Terrain and historical-fire context (10% each) are not yet ingested, so the score is renormalised over the components we can compute, and confidence is reduced accordingly. Every score exposes its top drivers with the underlying numbers.

We compute the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System from noon temperature, humidity, wind and 24-hour rainfall. The moisture codes (FFMC, DMC, DC) are spun up over the preceding ~90 days so they reflect antecedent dryness. Danger classes follow the EFFIS thresholds.

Low (0–19), Moderate (20–39), High (40–59), Severe (60–79), Extreme (80–100). Categories are always shown as text, never colour alone.

Weather model resolution is roughly 9 km. Scores describe conditions near a point, not a precise address. Confidence falls with forecast lead time and with any missing inputs. Stale or missing data is labelled, never hidden.